A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
